Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
Zacks · Nov 4 4:45PM
DELLChips & AI hardware
−8.8% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 88%
Headline moves, Nov 4
Big one-day moves by the largest stocks, the headline behind each, and how often similar moves were higher 20 sessions later.
SanDisk Slides 7%, Micron and Western Digital Fall 5% as Lawmaker’s Call for AI Pause Extends Memory Rout
24/7 Wall St. · Nov 5 8:47AM
MUChips & AI hardware
−7.0% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 88%
Dow Jones Futures Rise As Techs Fall; Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Flash Buy Signals
Investor's Business Daily · Nov 5 8:13AM
MSFTInformation Technology
+6.7% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
Home Depot Is Up 12% in a Week. Are Midterm Housing Hopes Really That Good?
TIKR · Nov 4 10:26PM
HDConsumer Discretionary
+6.5% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 75%
Dow Jones Futures Rise As Techs Fall; Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Flash Buy Signals
Investor's Business Daily · Nov 5 8:13AM
AMZNConsumer Discretionary
+6.1% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 75%
Dow Jones Futures Rise As Techs Fall; Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Flash Buy Signals
Investor's Business Daily · Nov 5 8:13AM
AAPLInformation Technology
+5.3% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
Caterpillar Sinks 6% as Democrats Win Congress: “Caught Up in This AI Trade”
TIKR · Nov 4 11:45AM
CATIndustrials
−5.2% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
−4.6% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 38%
What Does JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Gain From Its Dubai Push And US Hires?
Simply Wall St. · Nov 4 5:13PM
JPMFinancials
+4.2% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
+4.0% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
Visa Forecasts U.S. Holiday Spending to Rise 4.5% as Consumers Keep the Holidays a Priority
Business Wire · Nov 5 7:00AM
VFinancials
+3.8% on the day
8 similar movesHigher 20 sessions later 62%
Conflict and oil
Since the Iran war began on Feb 27, Brent crude has been the market's war barometer: oil spikes have meant stock selloffs, and oil drops have meant rallies.
- of 26 oil spikes (Brent +4%) saw SPY fall
- 77%
- of 20 oil drops (Brent -4%) saw SPY rise
- 70%
- VIX points on an average oil-spike day
- +1.1
The bottom line
As of the Wednesday Nov 4 close.
- The damage is narrow. 19 of the 50 largest stocks are in a slump (15%+ off the high and weak). Most are chips and AI hardware, plus GOOGL and META; the rest are PLTR, ORCL, BAC, PANW, NFLX, CAT, GS. SPY is 1.6% from its high; QQQ is 8.9% off.
- Chip index: 30% below its June 22 peak after 95 sessions. Past major chip slides (2018, 2022, 2024-25) bottomed after about 190-200 sessions, at -26% to -46%; 2000 went far deeper.
- Among the slumps, setup leans rally: GOOGL, CAT, PANW. Leans drop: NFLX, MU, PLTR. The rest of the slumps: no clear edge over the baseline.
- Rallies started from washed-out charts; big drops mostly didn't. The median 20%+ rally run began 25% below the high with RSI 33. The median 7%+ one-day drop came when the stock was 14% below its high with RSI 52; 42% of them came within 10% of the high.
- The cause sets the clock. One-time shocks (legal, one-off charges) mostly healed within about 2 weeks. AI-spending shocks took about 4 months, and the next earnings report that proved AI revenue was the usual turn (MSFT Jul 30, GOOGL Apr 30, AMZN Jul 31).
- Big up days were close to coin flips. After a 7%+ up day from 15%+ below the high, the stock was higher 20 sessions later 52% of the time (109 cases), versus 56% from near the high.
The 50 largest, scanned
"Own up 20" is how often charts like today's were higher 20 sessions later in the stock's own history; "Pool" uses all 50 stocks; "Baseline" is how often any 20-session stretch was up. Click a column to sort.
| Symbol | Name | Price | Today | From high | vs 200d | RSI | 1 mo | Own up 20 | n | Pool up 20 | Baseline | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | SPY | $766.81 | +1.7% | −1.6% | +5.5% | 51 | −1.6% | 80.0% | 10 | – | 66.8% | Leans rally |
| QQQ | QQQ | $691.95 | +1.0% | −8.9% | +1.8% | 39 | −8.9% | 60.0% | 5 | – | 63.3% | No clear edge |
| INTC | Intel | $58.27 | −3.8% | −58.7% | −33.1% | 23 | −48.2% | – | 0 | 66.7% | 57.9% | No clear edge |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $123.73 | −1.9% | −49.9% | −20.2% | 43 | −14.2% | 33.3% | 3 | 53.3% | 45.4% | No clear edge |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $369.40 | −3.3% | −48.9% | −16.9% | 34 | −30.3% | – | 0 | 56.2% | 62.7% | No clear edge |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $221.43 | −4.0% | −48.8% | −22.0% | 30 | −33.7% | 100.0% | 1 | 72.7% | 67.6% | No clear edge |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | $591.30 | −5.2% | −44.2% | −26.7% | 23 | −31.4% | – | 0 | 81.8% | 61.4% | Leans rally |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | $66.39 | +4.7% | −42.6% | −18.3% | 47 | −3.3% | 0.0% | 3 | 46.2% | 42.3% | Leans drop |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | $372.36 | −8.8% | −36.6% | +11.3% | 31 | −35.0% | – | 0 | 50.0% | 58.7% | No clear edge |
| MU | Micron Technology | $795.23 | −7.0% | −34.5% | +5.5% | 35 | −23.9% | – | 0 | 50.0% | 65.6% | Leans drop |
| AVGO | Broadcom | $325.48 | −2.0% | −32.2% | −11.2% | 42 | −13.4% | 66.7% | 3 | 64.1% | 55.6% | No clear edge |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | $288.93 | +3.2% | −28.1% | −14.9% | 30 | −16.9% | 100.0% | 1 | 74.2% | 58.9% | Leans rally |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | $488.78 | +1.0% | −24.7% | +18.0% | 39 | −24.7% | 50.0% | 2 | 46.7% | 53.5% | No clear edge |
| ASML | ASML Holding | $1,496.30 | −3.6% | −24.6% | −6.2% | 35 | −18.3% | 100.0% | 1 | 62.5% | 67.2% | No clear edge |
| IBM | IBM | $254.32 | +1.7% | −22.2% | +3.2% | 63 | +14.9% | – | 0 | 65.2% | 50.4% | Leans rally |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $385.19 | −3.3% | −21.4% | +0.1% | 51 | +1.2% | 33.3% | 3 | 60.0% | 51.5% | No clear edge |
| CSCO | Cisco | $103.61 | +0.6% | −20.0% | +2.3% | 40 | −12.2% | 100.0% | 1 | 61.9% | 63.3% | No clear edge |
| BAC | Bank of America | $51.63 | +4.0% | −19.9% | −5.3% | 45 | −4.5% | 100.0% | 2 | 57.3% | 54.8% | No clear edge |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | $928.00 | +3.6% | −19.1% | −2.4% | 55 | +3.4% | 100.0% | 1 | 62.3% | 60.0% | No clear edge |
| META | Meta Platforms | $630.00 | +1.4% | −19.0% | −0.2% | 40 | −14.7% | 40.0% | 5 | 54.6% | 51.5% | No clear edge |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | $171.70 | −2.1% | −17.9% | +11.8% | 33 | −10.6% | 33.3% | 3 | 56.5% | 62.7% | Leans drop |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | $348.04 | −0.6% | −17.1% | +27.8% | 41 | −17.1% | – | 0 | 73.9% | 56.2% | Leans rally |
| NVDA | Nvidia | $200.13 | −3.2% | −16.3% | −2.1% | 35 | −16.3% | 71.4% | 7 | 56.8% | 57.3% | No clear edge |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | $193.97 | +4.2% | −14.1% | +0.9% | 58 | +2.2% | 100.0% | 2 | 63.6% | 60.4% | No clear edge |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | $241.00 | −1.5% | −13.6% | +42.4% | 45 | −13.6% | 100.0% | 2 | 73.3% | 60.8% | Leans rally |
| GE | GE Aerospace | $329.45 | +2.7% | −13.4% | +2.3% | 62 | +6.5% | 75.0% | 4 | 64.1% | 57.9% | Leans rally |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | $198.43 | −2.6% | −12.0% | +2.0% | 56 | +8.3% | 100.0% | 3 | 56.7% | 66.8% | Leans rally |
| XOM | ExxonMobil | $169.27 | −4.6% | −9.6% | +9.8% | 43 | +2.9% | 87.5% | 8 | 56.1% | 63.5% | No clear edge |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | $216.96 | −3.7% | −7.9% | +12.9% | 45 | +4.5% | 66.7% | 3 | 60.7% | 64.9% | No clear edge |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | $87.43 | +2.2% | −7.8% | +5.3% | 63 | +7.3% | 66.7% | 6 | 64.9% | 56.2% | No clear edge |
| HD | Home Depot (The) | $355.44 | +6.5% | −7.1% | +7.6% | 74 | +24.0% | 100.0% | 2 | 73.7% | 47.3% | Leans rally |
| AMZN | Amazon | $266.03 | +6.1% | −6.3% | +9.2% | 60 | +3.8% | 55.6% | 9 | 58.6% | 56.0% | No clear edge |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | $409.38 | +1.2% | −5.6% | +13.5% | 57 | +8.8% | 50.0% | 2 | 60.7% | 52.5% | No clear edge |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | $311.49 | −0.3% | −5.3% | +20.3% | 66 | +5.3% | 40.0% | 5 | 58.5% | 48.8% | No clear edge |
| COST | Costco | $1,046.47 | +2.7% | −4.1% | +8.0% | 69 | +12.0% | 57.1% | 7 | 63.3% | 46.7% | Leans rally |
| LIN | Linde plc | $524.74 | +2.6% | −3.7% | +6.7% | 70 | +7.1% | 60.0% | 5 | 66.4% | 57.7% | No clear edge |
| WMT | Walmart | $129.17 | +3.5% | −3.5% | +9.2% | 74 | +20.5% | 33.3% | 3 | 65.6% | 57.5% | No clear edge |
| MRK | Merck & Co. | $150.36 | +3.9% | −3.3% | +19.2% | 57 | +5.9% | 60.0% | 5 | 53.1% | 62.0% | No clear edge |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | $352.11 | +4.2% | −3.1% | +9.7% | 64 | +6.3% | 66.7% | 9 | 58.6% | 58.7% | No clear edge |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $276.32 | +3.8% | −0.8% | +12.2% | 61 | +8.5% | 80.0% | 5 | 59.5% | 66.2% | No clear edge |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific | $706.16 | +1.1% | −0.4% | +28.0% | 60 | +7.6% | 33.3% | 3 | 52.5% | 58.1% | Leans drop |
| KO | Coca-Cola Company (The) | $95.80 | +1.1% | −0.0% | +17.2% | 65 | +11.2% | 33.3% | 3 | 61.6% | 60.8% | Leans drop |
| ABBV | AbbVie | $294.83 | +3.1% | −0.0% | +25.2% | 66 | +11.2% | 0.0% | 1 | 55.1% | 67.4% | Leans drop |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $349.51 | +5.3% | +0.0% | +17.5% | 58 | +4.8% | 71.4% | 7 | 58.4% | 63.3% | No clear edge |
| MSFT | Microsoft | $555.80 | +6.7% | +0.0% | +26.9% | 64 | +5.0% | 0.0% | 2 | 54.2% | 51.9% | No clear edge |
| LLY | Lilly (Eli) | $1,417.99 | +0.6% | +0.0% | +29.5% | 77 | +22.5% | 50.0% | 2 | 62.9% | 57.3% | No clear edge |
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway | $579.09 | +4.0% | +0.0% | +16.6% | 83 | +14.5% | – | 0 | 65.5% | 51.7% | Leans rally |
| V | Visa Inc. | $436.57 | +3.8% | +0.0% | +27.3% | 76 | +17.8% | 0.0% | 1 | 57.9% | 55.4% | No clear edge |
| MA | Mastercard | $672.68 | +3.9% | +0.0% | +25.5% | 75 | +18.9% | – | 0 | 55.6% | 50.4% | No clear edge |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | $167.32 | +3.2% | +0.0% | +13.7% | 70 | +13.5% | 0.0% | 2 | 62.0% | 44.6% | Leans rally |
| PM | Philip Morris International | $211.28 | +1.6% | +0.0% | +16.5% | 67 | +11.0% | 20.0% | 5 | 59.6% | 59.8% | Leans drop |
| AMGN | Amgen | $478.48 | +3.7% | +0.0% | +27.9% | 73 | +18.8% | 50.0% | 2 | 61.6% | 57.1% | No clear edge |
Rally or drop: where today's charts sit
- Green dots are where each of the 162 rally runs of 20%+ began (median gain 42% over 54 sessions). 89% started with RSI at or below 40, and 73% started 20%+ below the high.
- Red crosses are the day before each 7%+ one-day drop. They cluster near the high with middling RSI: shocks usually hit stocks that looked fine.
- Read it carefully. Every rally starts at a low, but plenty of days in the green zone were followed by more selling before the real low. The map shows where rallies can start, not when. The setup-match numbers on each page answer "how often".
How a rhyme is found
1
Moves are logged
When one of the 50 largest US stocks moves 5% or more in a day, the move is saved with the market's reaction and the headlines found that evening.
2
Lookalikes are matched
Each move and each chart is compared with the closest past moments of the last two years: same direction, similar size and setup, similar market backdrop.
3
Calls are graded
Every call is saved when it's made, then scored against what prices did 1, 5 and 20 sessions later. The track record keeps the misses.