- 5 days
- +2.6%
- From 52-wk high
- −14.1%
- vs 200-day
- +0.9%
- RSI 14
- 57.7
- 1 month
- +2.2%
- Next earnings
- –
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 2 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | +12.6% |
| 50-stock pool | 162 | 58.6% | 64.2% | 63.6% | +3.1% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 54.8% | 59.3% | 60.4% | +2.2% |
- MS's 2 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -29% to -19% below the high, RSI 28-31. Today: -14%, RSI 58.
- Only 2 lookalikes in its own history, so the large-cap pool carries the read. That pool mixes in other stocks.
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | −9.5% | −5.4% | −16.3% | 1 | 21 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | +11.6% | +2.7% | -2%, RSI 65 | −0.9% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +11.4% | +12.0% | -29%, RSI 29 | +10.0% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | Jan 15, 2026 | +95.6% | 196 | −29.2% | 28 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026 | +48.8% | 85 | −18.8% | 31 |
Calls on MS and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −14.1% | 58 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.4% | 45 | – | – | – | +0.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.0% | 34 | +3.3% | – | – | +2.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.6% | 25 | −0.6% | – | – | −1.2% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.4% | 34 | −5.0% | – | – | −6.1% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.3% | 30 | −0.2% | −2.6% | −0.8% | −6.2% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.6% | 32 | −3.1% | −8.6% | −7.1% | −9.1% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.9% | 36 | −3.1% | −10.9% | −11.1% | −10.9% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.7% | 50 | −5.5% | −11.4% | −13.5% | −12.6% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.2% | 55 | −5.1% | −12.6% | −13.5% | −13.6% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.5% | 50 | +1.4% | −9.8% | −9.6% | −9.8% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.8% | 50 | +0.3% | −3.8% | −5.0% | −5.5% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.4% | 54 | −1.5% | −5.0% | −3.0% | −5.0% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.8% | 53 | +0.5% | +0.6% | +1.0% | −4.1% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.4% | 47 | +2.8% | +2.1% | −0.9% | −1.4% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.2% | 48 | −1.4% | +0.4% | −3.2% | −5.3% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.7% | 48 | −0.5% | +1.4% | −3.0% | −5.7% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.1% | 59 | −3.1% | −2.1% | −4.6% | −8.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.8% | 52 | +3.9% | −1.1% | −1.4% | −5.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 50 | +4.7% | +1.2% | −0.2% | −1.4% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.8% | 69 | −5.0% | −5.5% | −4.9% | −6.3% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.9% | 63 | +6.1% | +6.4% | +4.7% | −2.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.9% | 64 | +1.0% | +4.8% | +3.1% | −2.5% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 74 | +1.9% | +1.8% | +3.6% | −0.6% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 68 | +5.0% | +12.4% | +13.8% | +0.3% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.0% | 60 | +4.4% | +13.2% | +11.1% | −1.5% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.1% | 64 | −0.3% | +9.9% | +9.7% | −1.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.2% | 65 | +1.5% | +11.0% | +5.7% | −1.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.9% | 65 | +1.7% | +7.5% | +3.0% | −0.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.5% | 71 | −0.4% | +2.5% | −1.6% | −0.9% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 67 | +6.3% | +9.3% | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.8% | 52 | +7.1% | +15.3% | +5.4% | +0.4% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −16.7% | 40 | +5.2% | +20.1% | +7.3% | −0.0% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.1% | 44 | −1.9% | +18.1% | +8.8% | −1.9% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.6% | 32 | +4.3% | +17.0% | +13.1% | +0.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −15.7% | 36 | −3.4% | +3.9% | +5.7% | −3.7% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.4% | 41 | −3.7% | −4.9% | +2.4% | −7.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.8% | 47 | −5.1% | −7.9% | −2.3% | −12.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.0% | 40 | −2.5% | −9.0% | −7.2% | −9.8% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.4% | 49 | −4.9% | −10.8% | −9.1% | −10.9% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −3.9% | 54 | −1.6% | −8.6% | −7.8% | −8.9% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.4% | 47 | +2.7% | −6.3% | −5.3% | −6.3% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.1% | 62 | −3.8% | −8.8% | −7.5% | −10.6% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.8% | 65 | +1.5% | −1.6% | −1.6% | −5.1% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 63 | +2.4% | +2.3% | +0.5% | −1.6% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 68 | +2.6% | +0.4% | −0.3% | −2.4% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.8% | 61 | +1.7% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +0.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.0% | 68 | −0.8% | +2.4% | +0.4% | −3.1% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 70 | +1.1% | +6.4% | +5.2% | −2.0% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.2% | 62 | +4.0% | +6.1% | +5.1% | −0.7% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.9% | 44 | +6.5% | +13.6% | +9.4% | +2.9% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −3.6% | 53 | −3.5% | +8.5% | +7.2% | −3.5% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.7% | 55 | +0.9% | +8.9% | +7.0% | −2.6% |