- 5 days
- −12.8%
- From 52-wk high
- −48.8%
- vs 200-day
- −22.0%
- RSI 14
- 30.0
- 1 month
- −33.7%
- Next earnings
- Wed Jan 27
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | +25.1% |
| 50-stock pool | 22 | 63.6% | 77.3% | 72.7% | +6.8% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 61.2% | 62.0% | 67.6% | +6.2% |
- LRCX's 5 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -47% to -16% below the high, RSI 23-42. Today: -49%, RSI 30.
- Only 1 lookalike in its own history, so the large-cap pool carries the read. That pool mixes in other stocks.
- Part of the chip unwind: see the chip-index overlay. Past major chip slides took about 190-200 sessions to bottom.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
Headlines
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | −11.6% | −5.4% | −19.9% | 1 | 21 | ||
| Aug 15, 2025 | −7.3% | −0.4% | −9.6% | 11 | 19 | ||
| Feb 4, 2026 | −8.8% | −1.7% | −8.8% | 0 | 3 | ||
| Mar 6, 2026 | −7.2% | −1.5% | −7.2% | 0 | 3 | ||
| Mar 26, 2026 | −9.4% | −2.4% | −14.4% | 2 | 9 | ||
| Jun 5, 2026 | −9.8% | −4.8% | −9.8% | 0 | 5 | ||
| Jul 2, 2026 | −10.2% | −1.7% | −43.3% | 87 | not yet | ||
| Jul 28, 2026 | −7.5% | −1.0% | −13.5% | 1 | 3 | ||
| Sep 14, 2026 | −8.3% | −0.8% | −9.7% | 2 | 6 | ||
| Oct 22, 2026 | −11.8% | −2.9% | −15.1% | 9 | not yet |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | +7.4% | +0.4% | -33%, RSI 46 | −4.9% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +18.0% | +12.0% | -46%, RSI 29 | +5.3% | |
| May 12, 2025 | +9.1% | +4.1% | -33%, RSI 59 | +10.6% | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | +7.7% | +0.6% | -0%, RSI 63 | +22.2% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | +8.1% | −0.2% | -4%, RSI 57 | +28.3% | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | +8.7% | +1.0% | -3%, RSI 70 | +5.0% | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +8.3% | +2.1% | -14%, RSI 50 | −8.5% | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +9.9% | +3.0% | -10%, RSI 52 | +20.6% | |
| May 6, 2026 | +7.7% | +2.1% | 0%, RSI 63 | +13.2% | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +12.7% | +3.4% | -6%, RSI 57 | −8.9% | |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +7.2% | +0.8% | -8%, RSI 59 | −24.0% | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | +8.4% | +2.5% | -7%, RSI 58 | −34.4% | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +18.0% | +3.3% | -42%, RSI 31 | +7.0% | |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +7.9% | +3.4% | -32%, RSI 44 | −8.7% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | Nov 10, 2025 | +182.8% | 151 | −47.1% | 23 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Jan 29, 2026 | +78.1% | 46 | −16.1% | 42 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | +116.9% | 63 | −19.8% | 38 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | +36.3% | 13 | −41.8% | 31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | +29.2% | 12 | −37.9% | 36 |
Calls on LRCX and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −48.8% | 30 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −44.8% | 34 | – | – | – | −7.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −46.8% | 25 | +3.9% | – | – | −3.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −39.0% | 30 | −12.8% | – | – | −16.1% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −26.3% | 51 | −17.2% | – | – | −30.6% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −19.7% | 68 | −8.2% | −31.2% | −29.4% | −33.8% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −27.2% | 56 | +10.2% | −27.0% | −25.5% | −27.0% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −33.5% | 46 | +9.5% | −8.3% | −8.5% | −8.3% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −31.2% | 45 | −3.4% | +7.0% | +4.9% | −9.7% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −29.0% | 49 | −11.1% | +12.5% | +11.7% | −12.5% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −30.3% | 44 | +1.9% | +4.3% | +4.5% | −10.8% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −27.5% | 48 | −3.9% | −3.7% | −5.0% | −14.3% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −23.3% | 55 | −5.5% | −17.7% | −15.7% | −17.7% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −28.1% | 49 | +6.7% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −7.4% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −32.4% | 44 | +6.3% | +3.0% | +0.0% | +0.5% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −29.6% | 41 | −4.0% | +2.9% | −0.7% | −17.3% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −27.7% | 42 | −2.6% | +6.1% | +1.6% | −19.5% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −19.2% | 49 | −10.6% | −11.1% | −13.6% | −28.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.9% | 48 | −0.3% | −16.6% | −16.9% | −28.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −7.4% | 58 | −7.6% | −23.1% | −24.5% | −23.1% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 69 | −2.6% | −21.1% | −20.5% | −21.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 68 | +11.7% | −5.6% | −7.2% | −11.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −11.8% | 51 | +20.9% | +7.6% | +6.0% | +6.1% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.4% | 66 | −4.7% | +29.2% | +31.0% | −4.7% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 64 | +3.9% | +21.7% | +23.1% | −0.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.8% | 57 | +7.2% | +36.6% | +34.5% | −4.0% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.0% | 66 | −3.2% | +10.3% | +10.1% | −7.0% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.8% | 54 | +14.5% | +23.5% | +18.3% | +0.7% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.7% | 61 | −4.1% | +14.0% | +9.6% | −7.1% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.8% | 65 | +0.1% | +6.4% | +2.3% | −7.0% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 67 | +1.5% | +11.5% | +3.0% | −5.7% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.3% | 48 | +20.7% | +17.5% | +7.6% | +1.0% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −15.2% | 43 | +4.4% | +22.7% | +9.9% | −5.4% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −8.4% | 53 | −7.4% | +15.2% | +6.0% | −12.4% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.8% | 44 | +7.6% | +26.0% | +22.1% | −5.8% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −20.0% | 36 | +6.5% | +10.7% | +12.4% | +0.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.2% | 52 | −14.7% | −9.5% | −2.2% | −14.7% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.3% | 63 | −4.5% | −6.6% | −1.0% | −18.5% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.1% | 59 | +2.9% | −6.7% | −4.9% | −15.3% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.9% | 58 | +2.0% | −8.5% | −6.7% | −13.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.9% | 64 | −1.0% | −1.1% | −0.2% | −10.1% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −4.6% | 64 | +7.1% | +11.2% | +12.2% | −3.7% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 72 | +0.0% | +5.7% | +6.9% | −5.9% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 77 | +2.1% | +5.0% | +5.0% | −4.4% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 67 | +18.0% | +28.3% | +26.5% | +5.2% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 65 | +9.4% | +33.9% | +33.2% | −3.9% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 62 | +2.1% | +32.6% | +31.9% | −0.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.9% | 54 | +7.3% | +33.6% | +31.5% | −3.5% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.5% | 57 | +1.1% | +30.4% | +29.2% | −2.3% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −6.2% | 55 | +1.9% | +12.9% | +12.0% | −0.8% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.3% | 44 | +8.5% | +23.1% | +18.8% | +5.4% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −10.9% | 47 | −3.8% | +11.0% | +9.7% | −5.8% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.5% | 61 | −7.0% | +2.3% | +0.4% | −12.4% |