- 5 days
- −19.1%
- From 52-wk high
- −34.5%
- vs 200-day
- +5.5%
- RSI 14
- 35.4
- 1 month
- −23.9%
- Next earnings
- Wed Dec 23
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| 50-stock pool | 6 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | −2.2% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 61.6% | 63.3% | 65.6% | +7.3% |
- MU's 10 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -58% to -15% below the high, RSI 24-60. Today: -34%, RSI 35.
- No lookalikes in its own two-year history: today's chart is outside its range. The chart shows other large caps' lookalikes instead.
- Part of the chip unwind: see the chip-index overlay. Past major chip slides took about 190-200 sessions to bottom.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2024 | −16.2% | −0.4% | −18.9% | 7 | 19 | ||
| Jan 27, 2025 | −11.7% | −2.9% | −14.5% | 1 | 16 | ||
| Apr 3, 2025 | −16.1% | −5.4% | −27.0% | 1 | 27 | ||
| Nov 4, 2025 | −7.1% | −2.0% | −7.1% | 0 | 2 | ||
| Nov 20, 2025 | −10.9% | −2.4% | −10.9% | 0 | 5 | ||
| Feb 4, 2026 | −9.5% | −1.7% | −11.0% | 4 | 10 | ||
| Mar 3, 2026 | −8.0% | −1.1% | −10.3% | 3 | 7 | ||
| Mar 30, 2026 | −9.9% | −0.8% | −9.9% | 0 | 3 | ||
| Jun 5, 2026 | −13.3% | −4.8% | −13.3% | 0 | 7 | ||
| Jun 23, 2026 | −13.2% | −3.3% | −13.4% | 1 | 3 | ||
| Aug 18, 2026 | −7.0% | −1.7% | −10.0% | 4 | 14 | ||
| Nov 4, 2026 | −7.0% | +1.0% | −7.0% | 0 | not yet |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | +10.4% | +1.1% | -41%, RSI 43 | −5.7% | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | +7.3% | +0.2% | -35%, RSI 55 | −4.7% | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | +7.4% | +1.1% | -42%, RSI 44 | −18.5% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +18.8% | +12.0% | -57%, RSI 28 | +9.3% | |
| May 12, 2025 | +7.5% | +4.1% | -44%, RSI 60 | +23.7% | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | +7.5% | +0.6% | 0%, RSI 74 | +27.8% | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | +8.9% | +0.5% | -1%, RSI 71 | +24.5% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | +8.9% | +0.7% | -7%, RSI 61 | −4.6% | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | +8.0% | +2.6% | -18%, RSI 44 | +23.4% | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | +10.2% | +1.4% | -14%, RSI 46 | +46.9% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | +10.5% | −0.2% | -3%, RSI 64 | +38.8% | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | +10.0% | +0.9% | -1%, RSI 70 | +10.5% | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | +7.8% | −0.1% | -3%, RSI 66 | +10.2% | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +9.9% | +0.3% | -15%, RSI 51 | −1.2% | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | +8.9% | +1.2% | -27%, RSI 37 | +40.6% | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +7.7% | +3.0% | -18%, RSI 47 | +63.9% | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | +9.2% | +1.8% | -8%, RSI 59 | +64.6% | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | +8.5% | +1.7% | -3%, RSI 61 | +50.2% | |
| May 5, 2026 | +11.1% | +1.3% | 0%, RSI 76 | +68.6% | |
| May 8, 2026 | +15.5% | +2.3% | -3%, RSI 78 | +27.1% | |
| May 26, 2026 | +19.3% | +1.8% | -7%, RSI 65 | +17.0% | |
| Jun 8, 2026 | +9.9% | +1.6% | -20%, RSI 55 | −0.0% | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +11.7% | +3.4% | -17%, RSI 55 | −5.9% | |
| Jun 15, 2026 | +10.8% | +3.1% | -9%, RSI 61 | −16.9% | |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +8.7% | +2.5% | -4%, RSI 62 | −23.7% | |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +15.7% | +0.8% | -13%, RSI 57 | −24.1% | |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +12.2% | +1.9% | -29%, RSI 43 | −3.1% | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +18.4% | +3.3% | -39%, RSI 36 | +6.9% | |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +7.6% | +3.4% | -32%, RSI 44 | +4.6% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | Jan 21, 2025 | +30.0% | 12 | −45.0% | 34 |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Feb 18, 2025 | +21.0% | 14 | −42.3% | 39 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Jun 24, 2025 | +97.6% | 54 | −57.6% | 24 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Nov 10, 2025 | +141.7% | 70 | −17.9% | 35 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 2, 2026 | +117.5% | 48 | −20.5% | 41 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 18, 2026 | +24.7% | 8 | −15.4% | 43 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | +149.7% | 31 | −30.3% | 32 |
| May 18, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | +58.4% | 11 | −15.2% | 60 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | +40.5% | 13 | −20.0% | 55 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | +48.5% | 45 | −39.1% | 36 |
Calls on MU and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | Leans drop | −34.5% | 35 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −27.1% | 42 | – | – | – | −10.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.7% | 38 | +0.8% | – | – | −9.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.6% | 34 | −0.1% | – | – | −9.5% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.2% | 50 | −14.6% | – | – | −22.7% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.4% | 59 | −4.3% | −17.7% | −15.9% | −20.3% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.8% | 63 | −0.7% | −18.9% | −17.4% | −20.8% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −16.3% | 58 | +6.5% | −13.5% | −13.7% | −13.5% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −19.6% | 53 | +4.2% | +5.5% | +3.4% | −5.3% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −16.2% | 60 | −9.1% | +4.7% | +3.8% | −9.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −23.1% | 51 | +9.0% | +13.0% | +13.2% | −0.9% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.3% | 54 | −3.5% | +8.0% | +6.7% | −5.8% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −19.9% | 56 | −0.5% | −4.9% | −2.9% | −6.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −27.7% | 48 | +10.7% | +15.8% | +16.2% | −1.9% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −32.2% | 44 | +6.6% | +13.3% | +10.4% | +0.8% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −24.1% | 47 | −10.6% | +5.0% | +1.4% | −19.8% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −30.0% | 41 | +8.5% | +14.5% | +10.0% | −13.0% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −19.3% | 49 | −13.3% | −10.4% | −12.8% | −24.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −19.6% | 48 | +0.4% | −15.6% | −15.9% | −24.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −6.7% | 59 | −13.0% | −20.5% | −21.9% | −25.0% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 66 | −0.1% | −23.7% | −23.0% | −25.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −9.1% | 61 | +23.4% | +0.2% | −1.5% | −4.5% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −20.0% | 55 | +13.6% | +8.6% | +7.0% | +3.2% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 78 | −11.0% | +17.9% | +19.7% | −11.0% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −6.5% | 65 | +37.9% | +40.0% | +41.4% | +15.0% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −9.8% | 66 | +3.6% | +50.1% | +48.0% | −6.0% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 84 | −3.0% | +27.1% | +26.9% | −8.7% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 72 | +37.7% | +91.0% | +85.7% | +6.3% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 69 | +9.2% | +51.2% | +46.8% | +1.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.3% | 63 | +9.2% | +59.2% | +55.2% | −1.5% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −8.9% | 57 | +8.2% | +77.6% | +69.0% | +1.4% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −20.6% | 44 | +14.8% | +48.0% | +38.2% | +3.1% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −22.6% | 38 | +5.8% | +46.9% | +34.1% | −9.9% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −8.4% | 52 | −15.5% | +6.1% | −3.2% | −23.9% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.7% | 57 | −0.8% | +0.1% | −3.7% | −24.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −15.4% | 43 | +15.1% | +2.1% | +3.8% | −13.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.8% | 55 | −10.2% | −13.4% | −6.1% | −13.8% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −2.2% | 62 | −3.7% | −1.2% | +4.4% | −13.5% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −6.0% | 60 | +2.3% | +7.3% | +9.2% | −10.0% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −9.8% | 57 | +4.3% | −1.4% | +0.4% | −6.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −4.8% | 70 | −4.9% | −0.5% | +0.3% | −10.0% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 79 | +3.8% | +5.3% | +6.3% | −6.6% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 72 | +7.3% | +10.2% | +11.5% | +0.6% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 72 | +5.1% | +11.1% | +11.1% | −3.4% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 72 | +9.4% | +38.8% | +37.0% | −1.0% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −0.7% | 67 | +9.7% | +44.1% | +43.4% | +0.3% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 62 | +10.7% | +46.4% | +45.7% | +3.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −8.6% | 53 | +10.3% | +40.3% | +38.2% | −6.5% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.3% | 56 | +1.7% | +44.8% | +43.6% | −4.9% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 57 | +0.3% | +24.5% | +23.6% | −4.6% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −18.1% | 44 | +16.0% | +33.4% | +29.2% | +8.0% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.6% | 65 | −16.0% | −3.8% | −5.1% | −18.4% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.2% | 69 | +3.7% | +3.8% | +1.9% | −15.4% |