How to read the site

• Setup match: for each stock, find past days in the last two years when its chart looked like today's (similar distance from the 52-week high, RSI and position vs the 200-day). Count how often the next 5, 10 and 20 sessions were up, then compare that with the baseline: how often any 20-session stretch was up. Only the difference means anything.
• Overlays: each slumping stock's current slide is drawn on top of its past slides, and its latest shock on top of similar past shocks, so you can see where it sits on the path.
• Story: the cause matters as much as the chart. Each detail page says why the stock is down.

Setup match

• Lookalike rule: within 6 points of today's distance from the 52-week high, within 7 RSI points, and within 6 points of today's position vs the 200-day. Days from Nov 2024 up to 20 sessions before today (so 20 sessions of follow-through exist). Matching days within about two weeks of each other count once.
• The baseline is the yardstick. These two years were mostly a rising market, so most stretches were up anyway. "Leans rally" needs a lookalike hit rate at least 10 points above the baseline; "leans drop", 10 points below.
• Small samples. Many stocks have 0-5 lookalikes of their own. The large-cap pool is bigger, but its cases cluster in the same market episodes (April 2025, July 2026), so they aren't independent.
• Survivorship. The list is today's 50 largest stocks. Companies that fell out of the top 50 aren't here, which makes past recoveries look better than they were.
• Charts ignore the story. A chart can match a past rally while the cause matches a past collapse. Read the "why it's down" line.
• Scheduled events override setups: AMAT Nov 12; CSCO Nov 12; NVDA Nov 17; PANW Nov 18; DELL Nov 24. Plus macro dates (jobs, CPI, Fed).
• For options: recovery times here are in trading sessions (about 21 a month). The median AI-spending recovery of about 88 sessions is roughly 4 months, longer than most weekly or monthly contracts. Implied volatility is usually high right after a drop, so calls cost more just when the setup looks best.
• Headlines come from web reporting, some of it aggregator sites. Key figures were cross-checked where sources disagreed; lower-confidence causes are marked.
• Mechanical analysis of end-of-day Yahoo Finance data. Not financial advice.

Headline moves

• A move is logged when a top-50 stock moves 5%+ in a day, or 3%+ when that is three times its usual daily swing (60-day standard deviation).
• Kind: market-wide when QQQ moved 2%+ the same way; group move when same-group peers moved at least a third as much; otherwise stock-specific.
• Similar moments: past moves in the last two years in the same direction and 0.6-1.7× the size, ranked by closeness of size, setup (distance from the high, RSI), the QQQ move that day, same stock, same group and same kind. One per date, and only moves whose 20-session outcome was known by then.
• Headlines are pulled from Yahoo Finance news when the move is logged and kept as they were. Coverage is best for moves logged the same evening.

Sources

• GOOGL Oct 29, 2026: https://www.trefis.com/stock/googl/articles/621527/what-sent-alphabet-stock-lower/2026-10-30
• GOOGL Jul 23, 2026: https://siliconangle.com/2026/07/22/alphabets-stock-sinks-bumps-ai-infrastructure-spending-yet/
• GOOGL slide since May: https://www.semafor.com/article/08/27/2026/alphabet-stock-sheds-700b-as-its-ai-bills-climb
• META Q3 2026: https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/meta-meta-stock-news-october-23-2026/
• META Mar 26, 2026: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/992823/meta-stock-just-had-its-worst-day-in-nearly-a-year-here-s-what-happened
• META Apr 30, 2026: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/meta-zuckerberg-145-billion-ai-spending-roi/
• META Jul 30, 2026: https://thewrap.com/industry-news/business/meta-second-quarter-earnings-2026
• MSFT Jan 29, 2026: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/01/29/what-went-wrong-with-microsoft-and-why-its-down-big-today/
• NVDA Oct 2026: https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/nvidia-nvda-stock-news-october-15-2026/
• NVDA earnings date: https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/Nvda
• TSLA Jul 2, 2026: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/02/tesla-drops-7-despite-blowout-q2-delivery-beat-nio-slips-after-its-own-delivery-update/
• TSLA Jul 23, 2026: https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/tesla-stock-erases-214-billion-in-a-single-day-heres-what-happened-this-month-2026-07-24
• AAPL Jul 31, 2026: https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/31/apple-stock-opens-down-roughly-10-following-mixed-q3-2026-results/
• Jobs report Nov 6: https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/dates/nfp-2026/
• MSFT Jul 30, 2026 rally: https://fortune.com/2026/07/30/microsoft-stock-biggest-one-day-gain-since-2008-480-billion-market-value-cloud-growth/
• AMZN Jul 31, 2026 rally: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-amazon-stock-jumped-14-july-while-market-was-flat
• GOOGL Apr 30, 2026 rally: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-today-april-30-221337592.html
• META Sep 21, 2026 rally: https://www.tikr.com/blog/meta-stock-jumped-11-monday-heres-where-shares-could-go-further-in-2026
• META Jul 1, 2026 rally: https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/2648526491
• NVDA Aug 27, 2026 rally: https://upstox.com/news/market-news/us-stocks/nvidia-stock-jumps-over-8-during-pre-market-nasdaq-hours-on-strong-q2-earnings-here-s-what-experts-say/article-199371/
• Chip selloff, early July 2026: https://schwabnetwork.beehiiv.com/p/chip-stocks-kick-off-july-on-a-sour-note
• Chip stocks in July 2026: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260717473/19-mostly-tech-stocks-that-have-fallen-at-least-25-in-july
• INTC Oct 30, 2026: https://www.trefis.com/stock/intc/articles/621871/why-is-intel-stock-falling/2026-11-02
• ORCL debt and AI buildout: https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/investing/oracle-shares-drop-the-most-since-2001-on-mounting-ai-spending
• NFLX 2026 decline: https://nasdaq.com/articles/why-netflix-stock-dropped-24-first-half-2026
• DELL Oct 14, 2026: https://www.trefis.com/stock/dell/articles2/618848/what-changed-for-dell-stock-and-what-did-not/2026-10-15
• MU memory prices: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/11/micron-stock-is-down-28-and-here-is-what-investors/
• AVGO Jun 2026: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2611596/broadcom-set-to-shed-300-billion-in-value-as-ai-results-fail-to-impress
• PLTR Oct 16, 2026: https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/palantir-pltr-stock-news-october-19-2026/
• PANW Sep 2, 2026: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/02/palo-alto-sinks-8-despite-34-revenue-growth-crowdstrike-falls-3-fortinet-slips/
• CSCO Aug 13, 2026: https://www.tikr.com/blog/cisco-fell-8-after-earnings-heres-where-the-stock-is-headed-in-2026
• Banks Sep 2026: https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Why+Goldman+Sachs+(GS)+Stock+Is+Down+Today
• CAT: Why did Caterpillar stock fall? (-9.3% on Q3 outlook): https://www.trefis.com/stock/cat/articles/621581/why-did-caterpillar-stock-fall/2026-10-30
• ASML: ASML fell 6% in Intel's chip rout; CEO says supply 'will not: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asml-fell-6-intel-chip-130226531.html
• AMAT: Applied Materials just dropped 29% in a month: will Nov 12 e: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/applied-materials-just-dropped-29-200544926.html
• LRCX: Lam Research sinks on slowing guide; CFO says supply constra: https://www.tikr.com/blog/lam-research-stock-sinks-7-on-a-guide-that-beat-would-have-been-a-bit-higher