- 5 days
- −4.6%
- From 52-wk high
- −8.9%
- vs 200-day
- +1.8%
- RSI 14
- 38.6
- 1 month
- −8.9%
- Next earnings
- –
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 5 | 60.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | +1.5% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 58.3% | 60.2% | 63.3% | +1.4% |
- SPY's baseline is high (most 20-session stretches in the last two years were up), so even an 80% hit rate is a modest edge. Scheduled macro data (jobs report, CPI, Fed) lands inside any short-dated SPY trade.
- QQQ is heavier in the chip and AI names that are slumping, which is why it sits further off its high than SPY.
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
None.
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +12.0% | +12.0% | -23%, RSI 23 | +4.8% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Oct 6, 2026 (ongoing) | +83.9% | 375 | −22.8% | 23 |
Calls on QQQ and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −8.9% | 39 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.1% | 35 | – | – | – | −1.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.3% | 37 | −2.0% | – | – | −3.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 35 | −0.8% | – | – | −4.0% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.1% | 61 | −5.5% | – | – | −9.3% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 66 | +0.2% | −7.9% | −6.1% | −7.9% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −0.4% | 65 | +0.7% | −5.4% | −3.9% | −5.4% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.2% | 56 | +3.3% | −1.5% | −1.7% | −1.5% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.1% | 51 | +0.9% | +5.2% | +3.1% | −1.4% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.5% | 54 | −1.4% | +5.3% | +4.4% | −2.0% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.9% | 52 | +0.4% | +2.9% | +3.2% | −1.7% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.3% | 50 | +0.4% | +4.0% | +2.8% | −1.2% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.9% | 60 | −2.4% | −3.0% | −1.0% | −3.4% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.0% | 57 | +1.1% | −0.6% | −0.2% | −2.3% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.7% | 45 | +5.1% | +4.1% | +1.1% | +1.8% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −8.2% | 39 | +0.5% | +4.3% | +0.6% | −3.3% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −6.7% | 42 | −1.6% | +5.1% | +0.7% | −4.8% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.7% | 53 | −4.2% | −0.3% | −2.8% | −8.8% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.4% | 48 | +1.8% | −3.5% | −3.8% | −7.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.2% | 47 | +2.3% | −3.5% | −4.8% | −3.5% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.7% | 59 | −4.5% | −5.9% | −5.3% | −6.0% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.3% | 55 | +2.4% | −0.1% | −1.7% | −1.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.5% | 48 | +2.3% | +0.7% | −0.9% | −1.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 77 | −4.5% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −6.0% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.3% | 71 | +3.5% | −0.4% | +0.9% | −3.3% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.5% | 71 | +1.2% | +4.9% | +2.8% | −2.1% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 83 | −0.3% | +0.7% | +0.5% | −1.4% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 75 | +5.5% | +10.2% | +4.9% | −0.2% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 75 | +1.5% | +8.1% | +3.6% | −1.0% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 74 | +2.3% | +9.3% | +5.2% | −0.7% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −3.6% | 61 | +6.2% | +16.4% | +7.8% | +1.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −7.8% | 47 | +4.5% | +15.2% | +5.4% | +0.6% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −11.3% | 30 | +4.6% | +18.1% | +5.3% | −0.8% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −8.3% | 35 | −3.2% | +11.3% | +2.0% | −4.0% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.5% | 40 | −2.0% | +4.1% | +0.2% | −5.9% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.5% | 43 | −1.0% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −6.8% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.4% | 47 | −1.2% | −7.2% | +0.1% | −7.2% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.1% | 47 | −0.2% | −4.4% | +1.3% | −4.4% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.2% | 41 | −0.1% | −0.3% | +1.6% | −1.4% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.0% | 44 | −1.3% | −0.3% | +1.5% | −1.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.1% | 50 | −2.0% | −2.2% | −1.4% | −4.0% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.9% | 53 | −0.1% | −3.4% | −2.4% | −4.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.2% | 52 | +0.7% | −3.2% | −1.9% | −3.9% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.3% | 58 | −0.9% | −2.0% | −2.0% | −4.7% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.4% | 47 | +2.2% | +2.1% | +0.3% | −0.8% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.7% | 57 | −0.9% | +1.2% | +0.4% | −2.5% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.9% | 52 | +0.7% | +0.0% | −0.7% | −1.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.5% | 48 | +0.6% | +2.2% | +0.1% | −2.2% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −1.6% | 59 | −1.9% | −0.2% | −1.4% | −4.0% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.6% | 56 | +1.0% | +0.4% | −0.6% | −3.0% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.2% | 39 | +4.6% | +5.1% | +0.9% | +1.8% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.2% | 47 | −3.1% | +0.3% | −1.0% | −3.8% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.1% | 48 | −0.1% | +2.4% | +0.5% | −3.9% |