- 5 days
- −10.0%
- From 52-wk high
- −24.6%
- vs 200-day
- −6.2%
- RSI 14
- 34.9
- 1 month
- −18.3%
- Next earnings
- Wed Jan 27
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | +4.1% |
| 50-stock pool | 104 | 61.5% | 69.2% | 62.5% | +3.7% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 56.8% | 58.7% | 67.2% | +4.2% |
- ASML's 4 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -45% to -18% below the high, RSI 27-37. Today: -25%, RSI 35.
- Only 1 lookalike in its own history, so the large-cap pool carries the read. That pool mixes in other stocks.
- Part of the chip unwind: see the chip-index overlay. Past major chip slides took about 190-200 sessions to bottom.
Headlines
- ASML fell 6% in Intel's chip rout; CEO says supply 'will not fully meet the demand' Yahoo Finance · Nov 2
- European shares fall as Apple margin warning triggers global tech rout Investing.com · Nov 3
- Chip stocks tumble as AI 'pacing' call (AI-lab warnings to slow down) spreads 24/7 Wall St. · Sep 14
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | −7.1% | −3.0% | −8.6% | 2 | 12 | ||
| Jul 16, 2025 | −8.3% | +0.1% | −16.0% | 14 | 43 | ||
| Jun 23, 2026 | −7.8% | −3.3% | −8.6% | 1 | 6 | ||
| Sep 14, 2026 | −7.3% | −0.8% | −7.3% | 0 | 6 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | +7.6% | +1.1% | -35%, RSI 53 | −3.4% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +15.4% | +12.0% | -45%, RSI 27 | +3.3% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | +8.8% | −0.2% | -6%, RSI 52 | +23.9% | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +8.8% | +3.0% | -14%, RSI 45 | +8.9% | |
| May 6, 2026 | +7.1% | +2.1% | -5%, RSI 53 | +13.8% | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +9.5% | +3.4% | -2%, RSI 60 | −9.1% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Jul 15, 2025 | +38.7% | 66 | −45.5% | 27 |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | +122.0% | 140 | −26.2% | 36 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | +59.0% | 63 | −17.9% | 37 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | +21.4% | 13 | −22.0% | 35 |
Calls on ASML and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −24.6% | 35 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.1% | 39 | – | – | – | −4.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.9% | 35 | −0.2% | – | – | −4.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.4% | 38 | −4.2% | – | – | −8.7% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.4% | 52 | −7.8% | – | – | −15.8% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.0% | 65 | −4.7% | −16.0% | −14.2% | −16.4% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −12.2% | 55 | +7.1% | −9.9% | −8.4% | −10.5% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.4% | 49 | +3.8% | −2.3% | −2.5% | −2.3% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −14.5% | 47 | −1.1% | +4.8% | +2.7% | −7.3% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −13.7% | 48 | −8.1% | +8.5% | +7.6% | −8.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.6% | 43 | +1.1% | +4.4% | +4.7% | −7.1% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.2% | 50 | −3.8% | −3.0% | −4.2% | −10.7% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −7.2% | 60 | −4.4% | −14.6% | −12.6% | −14.6% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.4% | 52 | +5.9% | −1.5% | −1.1% | −5.4% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −18.0% | 43 | +6.9% | +4.1% | +1.1% | +0.8% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.7% | 48 | −7.2% | +0.5% | −3.1% | −11.6% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.2% | 48 | +0.5% | +5.7% | +1.2% | −11.2% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.7% | 51 | −2.8% | −3.0% | −5.4% | −13.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.1% | 50 | +1.6% | −7.8% | −8.1% | −12.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.0% | 54 | +1.7% | −7.8% | −9.2% | −7.8% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 66 | −7.0% | −9.9% | −9.3% | −10.6% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.9% | 66 | +3.5% | −4.7% | −6.3% | −7.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 56 | +13.5% | +6.4% | +4.8% | +5.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.2% | 60 | +1.8% | +16.8% | +18.6% | +1.0% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 62 | −0.3% | +8.9% | +10.3% | −2.1% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.7% | 52 | +8.7% | +26.0% | +23.9% | −2.8% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 64 | −5.7% | +9.9% | +9.6% | −8.3% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.3% | 52 | +11.6% | +14.1% | +8.9% | −2.9% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.5% | 55 | −1.9% | +12.3% | +7.8% | −4.8% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −4.4% | 56 | −0.1% | +3.1% | −1.0% | −4.9% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.2% | 61 | −1.3% | +7.9% | −0.6% | −6.1% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −13.7% | 46 | +12.2% | +8.6% | −1.3% | −1.0% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −14.7% | 42 | +0.1% | +10.2% | −2.6% | −3.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.7% | 42 | −1.1% | +12.1% | +2.8% | −4.8% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −11.8% | 45 | −2.1% | +11.5% | +7.6% | −6.8% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.3% | 38 | +4.1% | +0.9% | +2.6% | −3.0% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.0% | 56 | −10.9% | −10.2% | −2.9% | −10.9% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 64 | −1.3% | −10.4% | −4.7% | −12.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.2% | 58 | +5.6% | −2.2% | −0.3% | −8.1% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.9% | 61 | −0.3% | −3.8% | −2.0% | −8.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −2.2% | 68 | −0.7% | +0.2% | +1.0% | −5.9% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −0.4% | 74 | +2.4% | +7.1% | +8.1% | −3.6% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 76 | +4.0% | +4.6% | +5.9% | −2.4% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 72 | +6.6% | +12.2% | +12.2% | −0.8% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 68 | +9.5% | +23.9% | +22.1% | +2.6% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.0% | 52 | +14.5% | +35.6% | +34.8% | −0.6% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −7.4% | 49 | +0.9% | +28.8% | +28.1% | +0.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.3% | 53 | −2.3% | +17.5% | +15.5% | −6.1% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.6% | 60 | −1.7% | +13.0% | +11.8% | −7.6% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.4% | 58 | +3.7% | +0.6% | −0.4% | −4.2% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.1% | 41 | +12.6% | +9.4% | +5.1% | +2.2% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −6.4% | 48 | −4.0% | +8.0% | +6.7% | −4.0% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.4% | 51 | −1.0% | +10.1% | +8.2% | −5.0% |