- 5 days
- −15.5%
- From 52-wk high
- −24.7%
- vs 200-day
- +18.0%
- RSI 14
- 39.5
- 1 month
- −24.7%
- Next earnings
- Tue Feb 2
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | +0.7% |
| 50-stock pool | 15 | 60.0% | 53.3% | 46.7% | −0.4% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 57.3% | 55.2% | 53.5% | +1.5% |
- AMD's 6 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -57% to -17% below the high, RSI 23-50. Today: -25%, RSI 39.
- Only 2 lookalikes in its own history, so the large-cap pool carries the read. That pool mixes in other stocks.
- Part of the chip unwind: see the chip-index overlay. Past major chip slides took about 190-200 sessions to bottom.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | −8.9% | −5.4% | −24.0% | 3 | 27 | ||
| Oct 10, 2025 | −7.7% | −3.5% | −7.7% | 0 | 4 | ||
| Nov 20, 2025 | −7.8% | −2.4% | −11.4% | 18 | 37 | ||
| Feb 4, 2026 | −17.3% | −1.7% | −21.1% | 18 | 46 | ||
| Mar 26, 2026 | −7.5% | −2.4% | −11.0% | 2 | 8 | ||
| Jun 5, 2026 | −10.9% | −4.8% | −13.5% | 3 | 7 | ||
| Jul 28, 2026 | −8.1% | −1.0% | −13.2% | 1 | 6 | ||
| Oct 30, 2026 | −10.9% | −3.5% | −17.6% | 1 | not yet |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +23.8% | +12.0% | -57%, RSI 23 | +5.0% | |
| Jun 16, 2025 | +8.8% | +1.4% | -37%, RSI 55 | +26.7% | |
| Oct 6, 2025 | +23.7% | +0.8% | -11%, RSI 54 | +27.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | +11.4% | +1.1% | 0%, RSI 81 | +8.8% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | +9.4% | +0.7% | -7%, RSI 70 | +8.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | +7.6% | +1.1% | -2%, RSI 67 | −19.4% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | +9.0% | −0.1% | -10%, RSI 53 | −14.5% | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | +7.7% | +1.4% | -12%, RSI 62 | −18.6% | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +8.3% | +2.1% | -27%, RSI 32 | −2.8% | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | +8.8% | +1.1% | -26%, RSI 38 | −4.0% | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | +7.3% | +0.7% | -22%, RSI 51 | +38.6% | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | +7.8% | +0.5% | -2%, RSI 75 | +61.6% | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | +13.9% | +1.9% | 0%, RSI 84 | +34.4% | |
| May 6, 2026 | +18.6% | +2.1% | -1%, RSI 73 | +24.2% | |
| May 8, 2026 | +11.4% | +2.3% | -3%, RSI 76 | +7.7% | |
| May 20, 2026 | +8.1% | +1.7% | -10%, RSI 64 | +20.1% | |
| May 26, 2026 | +7.8% | +1.8% | 0%, RSI 73 | +3.1% | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +8.0% | +3.4% | -17%, RSI 50 | +9.4% | |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +7.7% | +1.7% | -2%, RSI 59 | −26.1% | |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +8.1% | +1.9% | -13%, RSI 48 | −11.0% | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +13.0% | +3.3% | -26%, RSI 36 | −1.8% | |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +7.0% | +3.4% | -17%, RSI 47 | −11.4% | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | +9.9% | +2.9% | -4%, RSI 65 | −12.6% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Aug 13, 2025 | +135.8% | 87 | −57.5% | 23 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | +74.9% | 38 | −18.0% | 36 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Jan 23, 2026 | +31.1% | 24 | −25.1% | 35 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | +184.1% | 64 | −27.8% | 38 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | +28.4% | 13 | −16.6% | 50 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | +51.2% | 48 | −26.1% | 36 |
Calls on AMD and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −24.7% | 40 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.3% | 40 | – | – | – | −7.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −20.4% | 39 | −2.3% | – | – | −9.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.6% | 38 | −2.3% | – | – | −11.7% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −6.4% | 57 | −13.0% | – | – | −23.2% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 70 | −4.1% | −20.4% | −18.6% | −20.4% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 73 | +0.5% | −18.1% | −16.6% | −19.5% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.6% | 65 | +12.6% | −5.5% | −5.8% | −5.5% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −11.2% | 58 | +8.5% | +17.8% | +15.7% | −4.4% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −17.8% | 50 | +3.3% | +32.3% | +31.4% | +3.3% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −19.9% | 45 | +2.6% | +30.6% | +30.8% | −2.0% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.5% | 46 | −1.6% | +30.1% | +28.8% | −3.6% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.5% | 54 | −8.0% | −4.1% | −2.1% | −11.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.8% | 47 | +6.4% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −5.6% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.0% | 45 | +1.5% | −2.2% | −5.2% | −4.1% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.1% | 50 | −8.8% | −9.3% | −13.0% | −17.7% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −14.7% | 46 | +5.3% | +3.8% | −0.7% | −13.4% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.0% | 58 | −11.1% | −13.4% | −15.8% | −23.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.9% | 52 | +7.7% | −8.0% | −8.3% | −17.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.4% | 56 | +5.8% | −5.1% | −6.5% | −5.1% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.8% | 61 | −2.9% | −6.3% | −5.7% | −7.7% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.7% | 60 | +7.8% | +7.1% | +5.5% | −0.8% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −14.0% | 54 | +9.7% | +10.7% | +9.0% | −3.0% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.4% | 76 | −9.6% | +4.5% | +6.3% | −12.3% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 73 | +9.1% | +11.2% | +12.6% | −3.2% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.6% | 67 | +10.2% | +29.0% | +26.9% | −2.4% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 81 | −6.8% | +7.7% | +7.5% | −9.0% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 80 | +26.3% | +41.5% | +36.2% | −5.3% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | +0.0% | 89 | +3.7% | +34.4% | +30.0% | −7.1% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 80 | +24.9% | +52.3% | +48.3% | −1.2% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.3% | 70 | +13.6% | +85.8% | +77.2% | +0.7% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −17.7% | 58 | +12.7% | +65.8% | +55.9% | +1.2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.6% | 48 | +9.0% | +65.7% | +52.9% | −2.9% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.8% | 48 | +0.3% | +36.6% | +27.3% | −2.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −26.8% | 42 | +4.1% | +27.6% | +23.8% | +1.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.2% | 40 | +0.5% | +14.4% | +16.2% | +0.5% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.3% | 42 | −3.9% | +0.9% | +8.2% | −4.6% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −24.3% | 39 | +0.0% | +0.6% | +6.3% | −4.6% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −21.6% | 42 | −5.2% | −5.2% | −3.3% | −7.9% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −21.1% | 41 | −0.5% | −2.8% | −1.0% | −8.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −10.4% | 53 | −12.0% | −16.1% | −15.3% | −18.7% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.8% | 76 | −8.8% | −24.3% | −23.3% | −25.9% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.3% | 62 | +8.4% | −12.4% | −11.1% | −17.0% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.1% | 39 | +14.1% | +6.3% | +6.3% | −5.3% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −15.5% | 56 | −9.1% | +10.2% | +8.4% | −9.1% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.7% | 49 | +2.8% | +17.2% | +16.5% | −5.5% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −19.3% | 48 | +1.0% | +17.0% | +16.3% | −4.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.3% | 42 | +1.3% | +4.8% | +2.8% | −6.0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.5% | 47 | −3.3% | −1.7% | −2.9% | −9.1% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.7% | 46 | +0.2% | −0.9% | −1.8% | −8.9% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −22.9% | 37 | +7.8% | +5.5% | +1.3% | −2.8% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.6% | 55 | −17.4% | −15.9% | −17.2% | −17.4% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −11.6% | 51 | +5.7% | −5.3% | −7.2% | −12.7% |