- 5 days
- +2.9%
- From 52-wk high
- −19.0%
- vs 200-day
- −0.2%
- RSI 14
- 40.1
- 1 month
- −14.7%
- Next earnings
- Wed Jan 27
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 5 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | −5.6% |
| 50-stock pool | 152 | 50.7% | 53.9% | 54.6% | +1.4% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 53.5% | 51.0% | 51.5% | +0.6% |
- META's 5 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -34% to -25% below the high, RSI 23-34. Today: -19%, RSI 40.
- Mixed shock: the legal charge is the fast-healing kind, but capex and Class C worries are the slow kind. Its own lookalikes lean weak; past META rallies started deeper (25-34% below the high).
Latest shock vs similar shocks
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | −9.0% | −5.4% | Market | "Liberation Day" tariffs. | −13.6% | 1 | 5 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | −11.3% | −1.5% | AI spend | Q3 2025: one-time tax charge plus guidance for much higher 2026 expenses and capex. | −29.9% | 101 | 226 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | −8.0% | −2.4% | One-time | Jury verdict in social-media addiction case; child-safety ruling. Fear of more judgments. | −11.6% | 1 | 9 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | −8.6% | +0.9% | AI spend | Q1 2026: capex raised to $125-145B (memory costs); first-ever decline in daily users. | −18.8% | 38 | 49 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | −8.0% | +3.3% | One-time | Q2 2026: EPS miss from legal and severance charges; free cash flow -91%. | −8.0% | 0 | 3 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +14.8% | +12.0% | -31%, RSI 29 | 90-day tariff pause (market-wide; QQQ +12%). | +2.1% |
| May 12, 2025 | +7.9% | +4.1% | -20%, RSI 58 | US-China tariff truce. | +9.8% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | +11.3% | −0.5% | -6%, RSI 45 | Q2 2025 beat and strong guide. | −2.9% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | +10.4% | −0.6% | -15%, RSI 59 | Q4 2025 results. | −12.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +8.8% | −1.5% | -28%, RSI 43 | Bloomberg: Meta building its own cloud business. | −12.1% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | +11.4% | +2.9% | -14%, RSI 66 | Wells Fargo target raise on early traction for the Muse AI assistant. | −4.8% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2025 | Aug 12, 2025 | +63.1% | 78 | −34.2% | 33 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Jan 29, 2026 | +25.4% | 46 | −25.4% | 23 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Apr 17, 2026 | +31.0% | 14 | −33.3% | 23 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026 | +25.5% | 13 | −31.1% | 34 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sep 24, 2026 | +44.4% | 39 | −31.5% | 32 |
Calls on META and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −19.0% | 40 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.9% | 33 | – | – | – | −1.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.4% | 36 | −4.3% | – | – | −5.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −8.8% | 50 | −9.4% | – | – | −14.5% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.6% | 57 | −1.3% | – | – | −15.6% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.4% | 62 | −1.3% | −15.5% | −13.7% | −15.9% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.3% | 71 | −3.1% | −14.5% | −13.0% | −14.5% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.4% | 66 | +13.0% | +6.6% | +6.4% | +6.6% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.7% | 67 | +2.7% | +11.0% | +8.9% | +2.7% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.7% | 62 | +7.9% | +20.4% | +19.5% | −0.5% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.7% | 50 | +6.7% | +23.9% | +24.1% | −1.0% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −29.3% | 39 | +5.1% | +34.9% | +33.6% | +1.7% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.6% | 48 | −6.8% | +12.8% | +14.8% | −7.8% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.8% | 48 | −0.4% | +4.2% | +4.6% | −8.2% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −29.3% | 38 | +6.4% | +3.8% | +0.8% | −2.3% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.4% | 44 | −6.5% | −7.6% | −11.2% | −9.4% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.0% | 57 | −7.9% | −8.7% | −13.1% | −16.6% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.0% | 66 | −3.5% | −11.5% | −13.9% | −19.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.0% | 50 | +14.8% | −4.5% | −4.8% | −7.5% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −30.1% | 38 | +9.1% | +7.9% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.7% | 43 | −4.7% | +11.9% | +12.5% | −6.0% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −28.1% | 35 | −0.5% | +16.7% | +15.1% | −4.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.8% | 42 | −4.4% | +3.9% | +2.3% | −8.4% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −19.7% | 55 | −6.2% | −11.0% | −9.2% | −14.1% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.6% | 45 | −1.6% | −7.8% | −6.4% | −7.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.1% | 46 | −0.6% | −3.3% | −5.4% | −7.7% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.7% | 42 | +0.8% | −4.0% | −4.2% | −4.0% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.8% | 41 | +0.1% | −1.4% | −6.6% | −1.6% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −14.4% | 62 | −9.8% | −9.6% | −14.0% | −11.3% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −12.6% | 70 | −2.0% | −10.8% | −14.9% | −13.0% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −20.1% | 58 | +9.3% | −3.2% | −11.8% | −4.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.1% | 41 | +9.6% | +6.0% | −3.9% | −0.3% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −33.3% | 23 | +9.0% | +29.1% | +16.3% | +2.0% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.7% | 33 | −11.4% | +13.0% | +3.7% | −11.4% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.2% | 36 | −3.2% | +3.5% | −0.4% | −14.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.3% | 46 | −4.8% | −11.1% | −9.3% | −18.4% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.8% | 47 | −0.5% | −18.8% | −11.5% | −18.8% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.9% | 49 | −1.1% | −9.4% | −3.7% | −9.4% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.9% | 43 | −0.4% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −4.1% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.1% | 49 | −3.3% | −2.1% | −0.3% | −3.7% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.2% | 66 | −7.7% | −8.8% | −8.0% | −11.1% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −16.5% | 56 | +8.8% | −3.3% | −2.3% | −3.3% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −21.4% | 37 | +8.4% | +3.1% | +4.3% | −2.6% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −17.2% | 49 | −5.0% | +3.7% | +3.7% | −7.5% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.5% | 48 | +0.4% | +8.6% | +6.8% | −7.1% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.9% | 55 | −0.7% | +1.5% | +0.7% | −8.9% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.5% | 54 | −0.0% | −7.0% | −7.7% | −8.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.4% | 48 | +2.3% | −2.0% | −4.0% | −2.0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.7% | 60 | −4.3% | −1.8% | −3.0% | −4.3% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.9% | 52 | +3.9% | +1.7% | +0.8% | −1.3% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.7% | 26 | +7.8% | +11.4% | +7.2% | +3.2% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.8% | 27 | −2.5% | +6.3% | +5.0% | −3.3% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.2% | 26 | −2.0% | +7.3% | +5.4% | −5.2% |