- 5 days
- +0.4%
- From 52-wk high
- −22.2%
- vs 200-day
- +3.2%
- RSI 14
- 63.0
- 1 month
- +14.9%
- Next earnings
- –
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| 50-stock pool | 46 | 63.0% | 67.4% | 65.2% | +6.5% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 52.3% | 54.8% | 50.4% | +0.0% |
- IBM's 5 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -37% to -17% below the high, RSI 20-42. Today: -22%, RSI 63.
- No lookalikes in its own two-year history: today's chart is outside its range. The chart shows other large caps' lookalikes instead.
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2025 | −7.6% | +0.2% | −16.2% | 13 | 45 | ||
| Feb 23, 2026 | −13.1% | −1.2% | −13.1% | 0 | 10 | ||
| Apr 23, 2026 | −8.3% | −0.6% | −14.2% | 14 | 21 | ||
| Jun 3, 2026 | −7.2% | −0.3% | −37.5% | 33 | not yet | ||
| Jul 14, 2026 | −25.2% | +1.1% | −29.1% | 6 | not yet |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | +13.0% | +0.4% | -4%, RSI 60 | −1.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | +7.9% | +1.1% | -3%, RSI 58 | −2.7% | |
| May 21, 2026 | +12.4% | +0.2% | -28%, RSI 46 | −0.3% | |
| May 29, 2026 | +12.7% | +0.4% | -15%, RSI 70 | −6.6% | |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +7.6% | +0.6% | -4%, RSI 80 | −12.2% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | +34.3% | 56 | −16.5% | 29 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Nov 12, 2025 | +34.9% | 65 | −19.8% | 20 |
| May 13, 2026 | Jun 2, 2026 | +53.4% | 13 | −31.0% | 33 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Jul 7, 2026 | +22.9% | 11 | −24.3% | 42 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 (ongoing) | +26.4% | 70 | −37.5% | 30 |
Calls on IBM and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | Leans rally | −22.2% | 63 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.1% | 71 | – | – | – | −3.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.4% | 71 | +1.7% | – | – | −1.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −29.0% | 54 | +9.2% | – | – | +1.8% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −30.5% | 48 | +2.2% | – | – | −0.0% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −31.9% | 42 | +2.0% | +15.8% | +17.6% | −1.0% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −31.0% | 41 | −1.3% | +12.4% | +13.9% | −2.5% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −29.8% | 44 | −1.8% | +1.1% | +0.9% | −4.2% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.6% | 57 | −5.6% | −6.6% | −8.8% | −9.6% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −28.1% | 50 | +6.0% | −5.7% | −6.5% | −6.4% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.9% | 51 | −0.3% | −6.3% | −6.1% | −6.3% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.9% | 50 | −0.0% | −1.6% | −2.9% | −2.6% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −28.3% | 49 | +0.6% | +6.3% | +8.3% | −2.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −27.9% | 50 | −0.5% | −0.3% | +0.1% | −2.9% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −32.1% | 41 | +6.1% | +6.1% | +3.1% | +1.2% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −34.9% | 35 | +4.4% | +10.8% | +7.2% | +1.0% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −35.4% | 32 | +0.7% | +11.0% | +6.5% | −3.2% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −12.7% | 55 | −26.0% | −17.5% | −19.9% | −28.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −12.1% | 62 | −0.7% | −22.8% | −23.1% | −28.9% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.5% | 54 | +10.3% | −20.4% | −21.8% | −24.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.3% | 42 | +9.0% | −14.5% | −13.9% | −15.2% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.3% | 53 | −7.4% | −20.3% | −21.9% | −20.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −13.5% | 59 | −4.4% | +7.5% | +5.8% | −12.5% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.2% | 80 | −4.4% | −6.6% | −4.9% | −16.4% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.4% | 67 | +26.2% | +4.4% | +5.7% | −1.9% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −29.5% | 39 | +15.8% | +22.5% | +20.4% | +1.4% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −26.1% | 44 | −4.6% | +22.2% | +22.0% | −6.6% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.9% | 43 | −0.3% | +39.0% | +33.8% | −6.9% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.9% | 39 | +0.1% | +10.2% | +5.8% | −6.8% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −19.1% | 57 | −8.5% | −12.8% | −16.9% | −14.7% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.3% | 35 | +9.8% | +0.3% | −8.3% | −2.2% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.8% | 49 | −7.0% | −6.4% | −16.3% | −8.5% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.5% | 38 | +4.4% | −3.5% | −16.3% | −3.5% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.8% | 39 | −2.2% | +4.9% | −4.3% | −4.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.4% | 41 | −1.8% | −3.4% | −7.3% | −6.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.4% | 48 | −4.9% | −4.7% | −2.9% | −8.7% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.3% | 35 | +7.8% | −1.6% | +5.7% | −1.6% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.9% | 33 | −6.6% | −6.0% | −0.3% | −13.1% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.2% | 34 | −14.9% | −5.0% | −3.1% | −14.9% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.1% | 50 | −11.7% | −14.8% | −13.0% | −24.9% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.6% | 55 | −2.5% | −21.5% | −20.7% | −26.8% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.2% | 44 | +4.9% | −23.2% | −22.2% | −23.2% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.0% | 52 | −3.1% | −15.0% | −13.7% | −15.0% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.4% | 53 | +0.5% | −2.6% | −2.6% | −5.0% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.5% | 34 | +4.4% | +8.0% | +6.2% | −0.1% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.1% | 52 | −3.3% | −3.7% | −4.4% | −4.5% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.4% | 46 | +1.6% | −1.1% | −1.8% | −3.2% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.8% | 57 | −2.7% | −2.0% | −4.0% | −5.7% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.2% | 57 | +0.4% | −1.8% | −3.0% | −5.3% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.0% | 59 | −0.2% | −0.9% | −1.9% | −2.6% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.6% | 51 | +2.8% | +1.8% | −2.4% | +1.0% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.9% | 57 | −2.7% | +1.0% | −0.3% | −5.6% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.1% | 60 | +0.3% | +1.5% | −0.4% | −5.3% |